Signals

Not investment advice. This is the output of a personal model made by a private individual. It is not a recommendation to anyone to buy or sell any security. The author may hold positions in some of the securities mentioned.

Signals trial & error dataset

The feed

Posts, days 1–12

Posts from days 1–12 as I published them on Instagram and Facebook, newest first, with the full caption. Not investment advice.

Day 12 ·

Cartoon of the Number Nerd, pointing proudly at a whiteboard plan with a big empty gap before the last step. Text: So it stays empty. Step 4, my personal goal, 1,000,000 euros. A stamp says The plan v2.

The plan, version 2.
1. Collect every insider report.
2. Score every insider buy.
3. Check a month later: did the price go up?
4. My personal goal: €1,000,000.
There's still a gap between 3 and 4.
My partner asked what goes in the gap.
I said "hard work."
My partner nodded. "So it stays empty."

docka.me, link in bio.

#buildinpublic #datascience #scientificmethod
Not investment advice.

on Instagram · on Facebook

Day 12 ·

Cartoon of the Number Nerd, watching a kid stick his plan on the fridge next to the kid's drawing. Text: Wow, good job. A sticky note says plan, on the fridge. A stamp says Proud of me.

Showed my kid the new plan on the whiteboard.
My kid asked which step makes the money. I pointed at the last one.
My kid asked which step gets us there. I pointed at the empty space in the middle.
My kid nodded slowly, said "Wow, good job," and stuck my plan on the fridge.
Then moved their own drawing down a spot, so mine "doesn't feel bad."

docka.me, link in bio.

#sideproject #buildinpublic #datascience
Not investment advice.

on Instagram · on Facebook

Day 11 ·

Cartoon of the Number Nerd, at the dinner table with a laptop while the family carries in the food. Text: Only one of them made dinner. A sticky note says intern, three caveats, family, no. A stamp says Peer review.

Asked the AI intern if the plan will work: a balanced answer with three caveats.
Asked the family: "no".
Both count as peer review.
Only one of them made dinner.

docka.me, link in bio.

#sideproject #statistics #buildinpublic
Not investment advice.

on Instagram · on Facebook

Day 11 ·

Cartoon of the Number Nerd, chin on his fist, squinting. Text: New on the blog. Feeling sure is not the same as being right. A sticky note says confidence ≠ evidence. A stamp says New on the blog.

New on the blog: "I talked myself into it".

I tried to talk myself out of the idea. I lost the argument. To myself.

Feeling sure is not the same as being right. I'm testing it so you don't have to trust the feeling. New post at docka.me, link in bio.

#buildinpublic #scientificmethod #statistics
Not investment advice.

on Instagram · on Facebook

Day 11 ·

Cartoon of the Number Nerd in a team photo with a laptop and a second copy of himself wearing a quality-control badge. Text: Everyone agreed with me. Two of us were me. A sticky note says QC, also me. A stamp says Team assembled.

Phase One: the team.
Lead scientist: me.
Engineering: an AI intern, $100 a month.
Quality control: also me.
I have a very good feeling about this.
Team meeting went great. Everyone agreed with me.
Two of us were me.

docka.me, link in bio.

#buildinpublic #python #sideproject
Not investment advice.

on Instagram · on Facebook

Day 11 ·

Cartoon of the Number Nerd, next to a laptop at a sink full of dirty dishes. Text: Great. Now there are two of you. A sticky note says dishes, not done by either. A stamp says Two of us.

First day with my AI intern.
It doesn't drink coffee, doesn't take breaks, doesn't complain.
My partner asked if it does the dishes.
It doesn't.
My partner: "Great. Now there are two of you."

docka.me, link in bio.

#sideproject #buildinpublic #datascience
Not investment advice.

on Instagram · on Facebook

Day 10 ·

Cartoon of the Number Nerd, practising a speech into a hairbrush in front of a mirror. Text: You're welcome. A sticky note says speech, thank my partner. A stamp says Speech cut short.

Practised my speech for when Phase One works.
My partner walked in during the part where I thank my partner.
My partner said "You're welcome" and walked out.

docka.me, link in bio.

#sideproject #statistics #buildinpublic
Not investment advice.

on Instagram · on Facebook

Day 10 ·

Cartoon of the Number Nerd, striking a heroic pose in front of a whiteboard in film-trailer lighting. Text: In films, that's the line before the music changes. A stamp says Phase One. A sticky note says I have a very good feeling about this.

OK. Enough thinking. Let's build a model.
Operation: Millionaire, Phase One.
The hypothesis: when bosses buy their own shares, the price goes up next month.
I have a very good feeling about this.
In films, that's the line right before the music changes.

docka.me, link in bio.

#buildinpublic #datascience #sideproject
Not investment advice.

on Instagram · on Facebook

Day 10 ·

Cartoon of the Number Nerd, holding up a notebook that says Phase One, phone in the other hand. Text: One reply: who is this? It was my partner. A sticky note says group chat, who is this?. A stamp says Seen.

Bought a new notebook for Phase One.
Wrote PHASE ONE on the first page.
Sent a photo to the family group chat.
Two thumbs up. One "who is this?"
That one was my partner.

docka.me, link in bio.

#sideproject #buildinpublic #datascience
Not investment advice.

on Instagram · on Facebook

Day 9 ·

Cartoon of the Number Nerd, wide awake in bed under rows of cartoon sheep sorted by colour. Text: Now I'm awake and suspicious of sheep. A sticky note says sheep, sorted by colour. A stamp says Suspicious.

Tried counting sheep to fall asleep.
Started sorting them by colour. Then by size.
Then I had a theory about the black ones.
Now I'm awake and suspicious of sheep.

docka.me, link in bio.

#sideproject #buildinpublic #datascience
Not investment advice.

on Instagram · on Facebook

Day 9 ·

Cartoon of the Number Nerd, chin on his fist, squinting. Text: New on the blog. Do bosses know something? A sticky note says boss buys → price up?. A stamp says New on the blog.

New on the blog: "Do bosses know something?"

In the US, company bosses must tell everyone when they buy their own company's shares. It's public. So, do they know something?

A coin guesses up or down right 50% of the time, for free. Any idea of mine has to beat the coin. New post at docka.me, link in bio.

#buildinpublic #scientificmethod #statistics
Not investment advice.

on Instagram · on Facebook

Day 9 ·

Cartoon of the Number Nerd, at the dinner table mid-question while his partner puts a fork down. Text: The question has moved in. A sticky note says boss buys, price up, with a question mark. A stamp says 3 a.m.Cartoon of the Number Nerd, chin on his fist, thinking, on a dark background. Text: 3 a.m. Do bosses who buy their own shares know something?Cartoon of the Number Nerd, arms crossed with a dry smirk. Text: Dinner. I know something. You've asked that at every meal this week. A sticky note says breakfast in bed, made by my partner.Cartoon of the Number Nerd, grinning a bit too hard while he hammers a laptop. Text: Fine. Let's test it. Rules first. A green stamp says Tomorrow.

The question has moved in.
It's there at 3 a.m. It's there in the shower.
At dinner I asked it out loud: "Do bosses who buy their own shares know something?"
My partner put the fork down:
"I know something. You've asked that at every meal this week. Including breakfast in bed. Which I made."

Swipe for the full haunting. docka.me, link in bio.

#sideproject #buildinpublic #statistics
Not investment advice.

on Instagram · on Facebook

Day 9 ·

Cartoon of the Number Nerd, explaining at a whiteboard to a kid holding crayons and a colouring book. Text: The homework was colouring in. A sticky note says homework, colouring. A stamp says Overqualified.

Thought about the question all night.
At breakfast my kid asked for help with maths homework.
I explained probability for twenty minutes.
The homework was colouring in.

docka.me, link in bio.

#sideproject #statistics #buildinpublic
Not investment advice.

on Instagram · on Facebook

Day 8 ·

Cartoon of the Number Nerd, standing ankle-deep in water in the bathroom with a notebook, one finger raised to explain. Text: Was this why the bathroom flooded? A sticky note says bathroom, flooded. A stamp says Cause found.

Explained my shower idea to my partner over dinner.
Every detail. Every "what if".
At the end my partner asked one question:
"Was this the reason the bathroom was flooded?"

docka.me, link in bio.

#sideproject #statistics #buildinpublic
Not investment advice.

on Instagram · on Facebook

Day 8 ·

Cartoon of the Number Nerd, dripping wet in a towel in front of a laptop with a speech bubble. Text: It said, Good question. A sticky note says towel, forgotten. A stamp says Loop.

Shower thought: in the US, company bosses must report when they buy their own company's shares.
So when a boss buys, does the price go up?
Ran out, dripping, and asked my AI.
It said: "Good question. How would you test it?"
I said I was hoping it would tell me.
It said: "Good question."

docka.me, link in bio.

#buildinpublic #datascience #scientificmethod
Not investment advice.

on Instagram · on Facebook

Day 8 ·

Cartoon of the Number Nerd, lying on a wet bathroom floor in a towel, writing on his arm with a lipstick. Text: Wrote the idea on my arm. In lipstick. A sticky note says idea, on my arm. A stamp says Not discussed.

Had a genius idea in the shower.
Ran out to write it down. Slipped.
Lay on the floor, wet, writing it on my arm in my partner's lipstick.
My partner walked in.
We have not discussed it.

docka.me, link in bio.

#sideproject #buildinpublic #datascience
Not investment advice.

on Instagram · on Facebook

Day 7 ·

Cartoon of the Number Nerd, proudly holding up a colourful chart that has been turned upside down. Text: Turned the chart upside down. Better. A sticky note says chart, now upside down. A stamp says Improved.

Tried to win the family back with a chart of my plan.
Colourful. Labelled. Two axes.
They studied it in silence.
Then my partner turned it upside down.
"Better."

docka.me, link in bio.

#sideproject #statistics #buildinpublic
Not investment advice.

on Instagram · on Facebook

Day 7 ·

Cartoon of the Number Nerd, mid-speech at the breakfast table while the youngest calmly puts down a spoon. Text: The youngest put down the spoon. So, no. A sticky note says verdict by the youngest. A stamp says So, no.

Breakfast. Told the family my personal goal: a million euros.
"How?"
"There's a plan. It's on a whiteboard."
"Does it work?"
"Step 3 is still being written."
My partner looked at the youngest.
The youngest put down the spoon.
"So, no."

docka.me, link in bio.

#sideproject #buildinpublic #statistics
Not investment advice.

on Instagram · on Facebook

Day 7 ·

Cartoon of the Number Nerd, holding a plate of pancakes with a hopeful smile. Text: Pancakes on a school day. Hide the bank card. A sticky note says pancakes, suspicious. A stamp says Busted.

Made pancakes to soften up the family before my big announcement.
My kid looked at the plate, then at me, and whispered to my partner:
"Pancakes on a school day. Hide the bank card."

docka.me, link in bio.

#sideproject #buildinpublic #datascience
Not investment advice.

on Instagram · on Facebook

Day 6 ·

Cartoon of the Number Nerd, hunched over a budget sheet, filling in a long column titled Why. Text: New column in the budget: Why. A sticky note says column added by, partner. A stamp says Still filling in.

Did the family budget tonight.
My partner read it all, nodded, and added one column next to my spending.
It's called "Why".
I've been filling it in for two hours.

docka.me, link in bio.

#sideproject #statistics #buildinpublic
Not investment advice.

on Instagram · on Facebook

Day 6 ·

Cartoon of the Number Nerd, showing a ledger to the family at the kitchen table. A ledger reads: revenue 0 euros, server 35 euros a month, Claude Max 100 dollars a month. A terminal line says select revenue from plan, 0 rows. A sticky note says why would you do it on purpose?

Monthly costs of my millionaire plan.
Server: €35 a month. AI subscription: $100 a month. Revenue: €0.
Showed the family. The youngest asked if we're poor now.
I said no, we're investing.
"What's the difference?"
Poor is when it happens to you. Investing is when you do it on purpose.
Long pause.
"Why would you do it on purpose?"

docka.me, link in bio.

#buildinpublic #sideproject #datascience
Not investment advice.

on Instagram · on Facebook

Day 6 ·

Cartoon of the Number Nerd, slumped on the sofa staring at a phone buzzing with a running update. Text: They ran far today. You stood up once. A sticky note says steps, one, standing up. A stamp says Benched.

Bought a fitness watch to sort my life out.
Day one, it praised me for standing up.
Day two, it begged me to walk.
Day three, it asked to be moved to my partner's wrist.
They go running together now.
My phone still buzzes every morning: "They ran far today. You stood up once."

docka.me, link in bio.

#sideproject #buildinpublic #datascience
Not investment advice.

on Instagram · on Facebook

Day 5 ·

Cartoon of the Number Nerd, staring at a phone with a smiling cartoon piggy bank on the screen, looking betrayed. Text: Finally saw it smile. My partner was logged in. A sticky note says piggy, smiling, not for me. A stamp says Betrayed.

The bank app has a little cartoon piggy that smiles when you save.
I've had the app for years.
Tonight I finally saw it smile.
My partner was logged in.

docka.me, link in bio.

#sideproject #buildinpublic #datascience
Not investment advice.

on Instagram · on Facebook

Day 5 ·

Cartoon of the Number Nerd, standing proudly at the fridge next to a printed page with one gold cell and an electricity bill taped beside it. Text: The bill next to my goal: Start here. A sticky note says Start here. A stamp says Motivation.

Late night. Made a spreadsheet called million.xlsx.
One cell: €1,000,000, my personal goal. Bold. Centred. Gold.
Printed it and stuck it on the fridge.
Next morning the electricity bill was stuck next to it, with a note:
"Start here."

docka.me, link in bio.

#sideproject #buildinpublic #datascience
Not investment advice.

on Instagram · on Facebook

Day 5 ·

Cartoon of the Number Nerd, standing on a bathroom scale and squinting at it, glasses in one hand. Text: Can't read it. Personal best. A sticky note says glasses, off. A stamp says Personal best.

Weighed myself. Didn't like the number.
Took off my socks. My watch. My glasses.
Weighed again.
Can't read it.
Personal best.

docka.me, link in bio.

#sideproject #statistics #buildinpublic
Not investment advice.

on Instagram · on Facebook

Day 4 ·

Cartoon of the Number Nerd, arms crossed with a dry smirk. Text: New on the blog. My goal has six zeros. My revenue has one. A sticky note says revenue: €0. A stamp says New on the blog.

New on the blog: "I need money".

My personal goal has six zeros. My revenue line has one. That's the only thing they have in common.

The whole origin story in one read, rules included. New post at docka.me, link in bio.

#buildinpublic #sideproject #datascience
Not investment advice.

on Instagram · on Facebook

Day 4 ·

Cartoon of the Number Nerd, chin on his fist, squinting. Text: 1,000,000 euros, my personal goal, not a forecast. One coin a second, no sleep, is nearly 12 days. A sticky note says 8 hours a day is nearly 35 days. A stamp says Just counting.

Nerd corner: how big is my personal goal of €1,000,000?

Count it out in one-euro coins, one coin a second, no sleep: nearly 12 days.
Eight hours a day instead: nearly 35 days. A month of counting.

Counting it is the easy part. I've checked: nobody is offering to let me.

docka.me, link in bio.

#statistics #datascience #learnstatistics
Not investment advice.

on Instagram · on Facebook

Day 3 ·

Cartoon of the Number Nerd, chin on his fist, squinting at a whiteboard with a four-step plan; step 3 is just three dots. Text: The plan. Step 3 is a bit vague. A stamp says The plan.Cartoon of the Number Nerd, sipping coffee with a straight face. Text: Step 1, need money. A sticky note says status, done. A stamp says Done.Cartoon of the Number Nerd, grinning a bit too hard while he hammers a laptop. Text: Step 2, do something clever with data. A sticky note says which data, to be decided.Cartoon of the Number Nerd, pumping his fist and winking. Text: Step 3, three dots. Step 4, 1,000,000 euros, my personal goal. A stamp says Gap detected.

The plan. I drew it on a whiteboard, so you know it's serious.

1. Need money. (Done. Very done.)
2. Do something clever with data.
3. ...
4. My personal goal: €1,000,000.

Step 3 is a bit vague. I'm told that's normal for a plan.

Swipe for the plan, one step at a time. docka.me, link in bio.

#buildinpublic #sideproject #scientificmethod
Not investment advice.

on Instagram · on Facebook

Day 2 ·

Cartoon of the Number Nerd, sipping coffee with a straight face. Text: The mortgage, the only thing here with a perfect track record. A sticky note says paid from the day job. A stamp says On time.

Why I need money, part one: the mortgage.

It's due on the same day every month. Never late, never early, never missed.
The only thing in my life with a perfect track record.

I admire it. I fear it. I pay it, from the day job.

docka.me, link in bio.

#sideproject #buildinpublic #datascience
Not investment advice.

on Instagram · on Facebook

Day 1 ·

Cartoon of the Number Nerd, arms crossed with a dry smirk in front of a wall of dashboards. Text: Hi, I'm the Number Nerd, and I need money. 1,000,000 euros, my personal goal, not a promise. A sticky note says I have a very good feeling about this. A stamp says Day one.

Hi. I'm the Number Nerd, and I need money.

So I've set myself a personal goal: €1,000,000. A goal, not a promise.
The method: build models, test them in public, publish every failure. I do the work, you get the verdict.

Operation: Millionaire. Day one. I have a very good feeling about this.

docka.me, link in bio.

#buildinpublic #sideproject #datascience
Not investment advice.

on Instagram · on Facebook